Can "Atom" Bomb? Imran's Law of Expectations

Sharon Gaudlin's article in ComputerWorld April 3, 2008 begins: "With Intel Corp. betting so heavily on the mobile Internet device market exploding in the next several years, industry analysts are wondering if the fledgling business can live up to the expectations."

Intel has named the technology/chips in question ATOM. So, I guess, the question is, will Atom bomb in the marketplace?

I think some of the comments from analysts like Charles King suggest that might be the case. "For a market now in its infancy to grow that fast in just five to 10 years would be an enormous growth curve - one that may not be realistic, especially with so many people satisfied with today's iPhones and other smart phones, said Charles King, an analyst at Pund-IT Inc. in Hayward, Calif."

I think King's comments are an example of Imran's Law of Expectations: "Any technology can be sufficiently overhyped to be perceived as failing to meet expectations, even if it is commercially successful in the market."

Yes, Intel (and others) will overhype this chip, this technology and this market demand. But the market 5 years from now will be far different from current form factors, so using those as benchmarks is surely a silly way to analyze the potential for this technology. The market may be smaller than Intel's hype, it may be bigger than analysts guesses, but it will be BIG. Big enough to be commercially successful.

Five years ago people using handheld PDAs could not have foreseen millions of iPhones in people's pockets today. As Apple readies its iPhone 2 device for release shortly, with even more functionality, it will be even more likely to hit its target of number of units sold.

I can only imagine what general magic Apple, and its many copy-cat product designers will do when Intel's Atom and others' even more exciting technologies become available to them to design the next generation of cool new products.

(Update: April 23, 2008: As I was writing these lines, Steve Jobs was busy negotiating the purchase of PA Semi, a StrongARM design-based chip-designer firm. It will mean far more incredible machines from Apple. Will it be a blow to intel's Atom? Yes. Will Atom bomb? Probably not, as there will be plenty of Apple-copycats out there needing chips.)

What do you think?

The Misnamed Apple iPhone Is My MyPod!

It has been several weeks since I had a time to write a blog entry, and I appreciate the emails I got from readers asking where I had disappeared. Actually, except for a truly wonderful European trip (will write on that another time), I have been busy commuting between my NY and FL offices and literally pulling all-nighters every few nights.

So much so that when Apple and Steve Jobs announced the truly spectacular Apple iPhone, I did not get a chance to praise Apple or to disagree with calling it an iPhone (regardless of whether Cisco has any claim to the name). My happiness was that something I had written literally TWO YEARS AGO, an entry in this blog on January 18, 2005, had come true. I had predicted that the iPod should be repackaged and redesigned to become a MyPod, a device with music and PDA functionality, but also running Mac OS X.

The phone talk had been going on even at that time, but to me the biggest strategic aspect of the iPhone (which I still think should be renamed to MyPod or something non-limiting like iPhone) is its using Mac OS X. I can hardly wait to get the machine.

Here is what I wrote on the topic and based on questions people raised, I gave more details of how the new iPod would become a computing platform. Your comments are welcome. Keep those emails coming, and hope to hear from you on my iPhone (when it ships, and hopefully unlocked so I do not have to be stuck with Cingular).

How iPod will become MyPod - Response to Forbes magazine

How iPod will become MyPod: And, Why Forbes Is Wrong About The Future Sales Of iPods

By Imran Anwar

The media, and consumers, are excited beyond belief at the incredible performance of Apple Computer in the last few years. It's recent release of a Mac MINI and an iPod (mini) Shuffle has generated even more buzz. It sold close to 5 MILLION of the existing iPods in just the last quarter. Even previous naysayer journalists have begun to sing praises of the iPod and Apple.

Forbes generally has great analysis. Their Mr. Hesseldahl usually writes logically and sensibly on technology issues. His recent piece (When iPod Sales Run Out Of Steam - Forbes 1/14/05) on iPod sales sounds similarly logically written. But, unfortunately, the logic is so flawed I had to laugh. Except, I am a satisfied Apple iPod user, MacUser and currently also hold a few hundred shares in Apple - so I had to respond to it.

Using the logic of his article, Microsoft should have gone out of business a few years ago, as well as IBM. After all, PCs and clones reached a much higher penetration of the market than iPod enjoys at present. Yet, more personal computers are sold today than ever before. People's needs increase. They upgrade. CPUs become more powerful. Applications require more resources and new hardware is needed.

Eventually, as machines become more affordable, people buy more PCs.

Similarly, with Apple's new $499 Mac Minis I can bet millions more of these and Windows PCs will sell even where people already have PCs

In My Humble Opinion, Apple iPods can conceivably sell in much higher numbers than personal computers, for various reasons.

A personal computer has the word "personal" in its name but often a whole family can share a SINGLE personal computer, especially because MacOS, Windows, etc. also allow separate user accounts to run on the same machine.

The iPod on the other hand is a TRULY Personal device. You take it with you. You keep your music on it. Your spouse or brother has their own iPod even if you both share the same computer. So, conceivably, a family with 2 parents and four kids that shares one PC (which could be in the range of $500-$3000) can easily also own six iPods.

If this family has a Mercedes or BMW or one of the newer models coming out with iPod support built-in, I could also imagine there being an iPod just for the car.

Sounds far-fetched? Think about it. We have cassette and CD players at home and in the car. For more than 5 years I have had a car with an integrated Motorola cell phone.

Now I have more than one cell phone. And, I am not even including the cellular numberless cell phone that is built into the car for the security and tele-aid system.

Over time, I just got used to leaving the Motorola cell phone in the car. Calls to it are automatically forwarded to my "handheld" cell phone when I am not driving. So, having a "car-iPod" in addition to the family's various iPods is not unthinkable.

This past Christmas, I bought a 40GB iPod for a friend who had done me a favor. I had considered taking his wife and him to dinner and a Broadway show. Instead, I spent approximately the same money on getting him the iPod. Whether he uses it (on his boat, car, motorcycle, hotrod, or just tooling around his family business where he is first to arrive and last to leave) or gives it to his wife or son or grandchildren, the iPod was the perfect gift. And, it will last a lot longer than that dinner I would have taken him to.

In the meantime, we got two more iPods, for my siblings, and I am now in the market for a replacement. My 30GB iPod is close to full and I also want the iPod Photo version. The 80GB version of that should be here soon, and as soon as it does, I hope to get one.

With the launch of the $99 iPod Shuffle, I can actually get these for my sister and her husband, who both like music but are not listening to it all the time to justify getting them the high-end units. At $99, at their birthdays, I would have no problems getting one each for the kids in the family.

So, as far as I am concerned, even if Apple does not add video to iPod (I have no interest in that at present), I can see MUSIC-ONLY driven sales continuing to rise. Add the explosion of podcasting, and more audio-books, and one can see how even "serious" people can happily tote iPods on the subway or on the plane, on their walk to the beach or walking in the mall.

If, as I have been begging for years, Apple re-releases a PIM (personal information maanger) or PDA, built either into the cell phone they are launching with Motorola or into the iPod (I already carry my contacts, calendars, and some documents on the iPod) with or without Bluetooth - you can see the implications of the iPod becoming even more a MyPod.

What do YOU think?