Can "Atom" Bomb? Imran's Law of Expectations

Sharon Gaudlin's article in ComputerWorld April 3, 2008 begins: "With Intel Corp. betting so heavily on the mobile Internet device market exploding in the next several years, industry analysts are wondering if the fledgling business can live up to the expectations."

Intel has named the technology/chips in question ATOM. So, I guess, the question is, will Atom bomb in the marketplace?

I think some of the comments from analysts like Charles King suggest that might be the case. "For a market now in its infancy to grow that fast in just five to 10 years would be an enormous growth curve - one that may not be realistic, especially with so many people satisfied with today's iPhones and other smart phones, said Charles King, an analyst at Pund-IT Inc. in Hayward, Calif."

I think King's comments are an example of Imran's Law of Expectations: "Any technology can be sufficiently overhyped to be perceived as failing to meet expectations, even if it is commercially successful in the market."

Yes, Intel (and others) will overhype this chip, this technology and this market demand. But the market 5 years from now will be far different from current form factors, so using those as benchmarks is surely a silly way to analyze the potential for this technology. The market may be smaller than Intel's hype, it may be bigger than analysts guesses, but it will be BIG. Big enough to be commercially successful.

Five years ago people using handheld PDAs could not have foreseen millions of iPhones in people's pockets today. As Apple readies its iPhone 2 device for release shortly, with even more functionality, it will be even more likely to hit its target of number of units sold.

I can only imagine what general magic Apple, and its many copy-cat product designers will do when Intel's Atom and others' even more exciting technologies become available to them to design the next generation of cool new products.

(Update: April 23, 2008: As I was writing these lines, Steve Jobs was busy negotiating the purchase of PA Semi, a StrongARM design-based chip-designer firm. It will mean far more incredible machines from Apple. Will it be a blow to intel's Atom? Yes. Will Atom bomb? Probably not, as there will be plenty of Apple-copycats out there needing chips.)

What do you think?

Snooping On Big Brother Snoops So Easy

I am a frequent reader of ComputerWorld for many years. It often offers good news and analysis on technology as well as technology related issues. One of the areas that is of interest to almost everyone with a job that requires using a computer (isn't that everyone these days?) is employers needing to or choosing to monitor on (or spy on?) the PC and net activities of employees. Jaikumar Vijayan has written an interesting article in the April 7, 2008 issue of ComputerWorld, titled "IT 'Big Brothers' trying to keep internal users under control".

One thing most of my readers know quite clearly, is that I am a big proponent of personal liberty, freedom of speech and privacy - citizen rights that the Bush administration has worked hard to destroy for the last eight years. However, on the topic of employers' rights to monitor to employees' use of the computer and network, I fully support employers. A PC is given to employees to do work for the business, not as a personal tool.

Sure, most, if not all of us, have had to use the office computer to login to a bank's web site to pay a credit card bill, or to send a quick email from hotmail or mac.com Mail. However, that is quite clearly not abuse and I know of few employers who would target such use as abuse. (I am sure if the email being sent was sexually explicit or otherwise inappropriate, employers could find that objectionable).

But, such one-off "urgent issue" type personal use does not mean an employee has the right to be sitting writing personal emails, trading stocks, watching online videos, visiting porn sites or chatting with buddies during the hours he or she is being paid to do work.

That means more and more companies are using automated and semi-automated tools and policies to monitor use of their IT resources. ComputerWorld's article (currently available at this link) makes some great points and talks about some products. It starts off by speaking about a technology manager named Tom Scocca at some big company that he did not want identified.

But even before reading the complete article I had to laugh at the silliness of stating "Scocca, (who) asked that his employer not be named."

Don't these "Big Brother" snoops know that anyone with a PC can be snooping on them as easily. Suppose one of the people mentioned in this story was really protecting something seriously important. It is laughable to think that a person seriously targeting him or his company can not reverse snoop on him.

Tom Scocca is most likely the same person who can easily be found on the Internet as being the Senior Security Manager at Applied Materials. Since it can established that this person worked at Cisco, and may have attended Santa Clara University.

We can easily see the company proudly tell us that: Applied Materials, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductor fabrication equipment worldwide. It operates in four segments: Silicon, Fab Solutions, Display, and Adjacent Technologies. The Silicon segment provides a range of manufacturing equipment used to fabricate semiconductor chips or integrated circuits.

Even without us feeling like being in a Mission Impossible type movie, an attacker could even speculate or analyze what Tom's attitudes or exposure to technology or even technology philosophy is by doing further research on his past job and even the courses he may have taken in the past. I think the biggest problem is that our IT managers today may be so focused on targeting small fish, they may not even know they are in the bite-path of hungry data sharks themselves.

Food for thought.

Is Indian Outsourcing Industry Losing Out To Other Sources?

Someone posted an interesting question on LinkedIn, that I have also seen being asked in other places, whether India was not the top outsourcing destination and why?

From discussions I have had with various people, and my own observations, I think that, yes, India's value as an outsourced services provider has increased in volume but is now less of a cost advantage to client companies. Quality has suffered, and many American companies in particular have pulled back from Indian operations.

While it will take some time for India to fall off its perch as the main focus of IT and even other professional services outsourcing, IT is beginning to show some changes.

Several factors are at play. In the past Pakistan, etc. could not really come close to what Indian companies could offer in a scalable manner. Such countries are getting better, though India still has far more momentum.

A major problem, besides India's poor infrastructure, is the fact that GOOD Indian engineers can now command salaries not a small but a significant fraction of salaries for similar positions in the USA.

Additionally, the quality of resources being churned out, almost mass-produced, by the professional/educational system there is not at par with what Indians have previously built a great reputation on. So some clients are starting to see significant declines in quality and significant increases in the amount of hand-holding or reiterations needed to get things right.

That still does not mean it is a slam dunk for Pakistan, Bangla Desh, etc. to steal India's thunder. India still offers far greater stability than, say, Pakistan can - so a US businessman is not going to worry too much about being beheaded during a trip to India.

So, yes, India is vulnerable to good competition on cost with good quality work. But, it is not on the way out.

Certainly many Pakistani and other countries' companies are leveraging that. But, I do not see Pakistan's built-in tendency to self-destruct any great opportunity going away anytime soon. Having been born in Pakistan, I have been an entrepreneur in Pakistan in the 80s. I know how tough it was then - even before suicide bombings became a problem. Now, suicide bombings targeting Pakistanis are a DAILY occurrence. I can only imagine how difficult it would be for a Pakistani company to convince Americans or any foreign clients to visit and freely move about the country.

I surely respect those that are trying to do it in the even worse situation of law and order they face. Their job is not going to be easy to even catch up to India, much less get ahead. But, time, effort and rising Indian costs can give them a better foot in the door than ever in the past.

In the meantime, Indians being far more strategic and better business-minded thinkers, are doing a great job not just moving up the "food chain" in services they provide, but are also leveraging global capital markets to turn the tables and buy American and European companies.

I do not see Pakistan's biggest business, industry and media tycoons thinking or being far sighted beyond the lengths of their own noses.

What do you think?

The Last Mile, The Shortest Delay - Will The Internet Slowdown?

According to a recent article by Shamus McGillicuddy, News Writer at SearchSMB.com, titled 'Internet not growing fast enough, researchers say, "according to new research, demand for Internet usage will start to outpace the capacity of the Internet's access points. This potential crunch could spell trouble for CIOs."

I am flabbergasted by the conclusions drawn by this team of researchers that the writer is reporting about.

They seem to be unfamiliar with the rapid pace of change in technology in general, and in Internet related innovation in particular, when making their semi-dire predictions.

Yes, there is a huge growth in Internet traffic. And, yes, some slowdowns can happen. But, the last mile to the home or business is, most often, NOT the bottleneck. As a matter of fact, I have 1.5 Mbps DSL in NY and 6 Mbps DSL in Miami, and some web sites can respond equally slowly regardless of where I access them from.

"Slowdown" is NOT a generic problem that afflicts the entire Internet, as the 'research' would suggest. The problem can be specific to certain sites, domains, news events of the day, and, much like the highways analogy the news article referred to, it is nearly impossible to build broadband pipes that people and applications will not find ways to clog.

What is needed is intelligent research on where the clogging is likely to be, rather than generic predictions, based on weak logic and an apparent disdain for the reality of the rapid pace of technology innovation.

In summary, the last mile is NOT the problem, and even 6 Mbps DSL lines can find some web sites as slow as 768 Kbps lines. 'Slowdown' is NOT a generic problem across the entire Internet, but is, and will be, a more and more site/domain specific issue. The rapid pace of technology innovation with more reasonable pricing mechanisms will ensure the Internet remains an efficient and effective platform.

Judge sentences porn spammers to 5+ years

Finally a judge shows some wisdom and throws the book at porn spammers who sent sexual images with open images for any adult or child to see. Hope they are treated as porn queens in the prisons they are sent to. Say Hello To Bubba, boys! After they spend some "hard time" here, they ought to be shipped off to Saudi Arabia, even better, Afghanistan, for further hospitality.

read more | digg story

Stolen content from Bill Gates' new "visionary" book

Here is a stolen list of content points from (the so-called v:$:onary) Bill Gates' upcoming new book.....

- Internet will be huge one day
- People will be able to communicate easily using it one day
- Security will become important one day, maybe
- Online music will be a revolutionary new market one day
- Lots of cell phones will be used one day
- Lots of PDA and cameras will come in cell phones one day
- Open Source is a fad going away any day
- iPod is a temporary thing, (we will copy it any day)
- iTunes is a fad (our version is too buggy to release yet)
- Windows XXXP will only require 3 major patches before it runs
- Blue screen will be replaced by Red, to softly tell people they'e bloody fools to buy the new OS
- Longhorn is beginning to feel like one, Bill REALLY needs it to get out sooooooon!

:-)

How iPod will become MyPod - Response to Forbes magazine

How iPod will become MyPod: And, Why Forbes Is Wrong About The Future Sales Of iPods

By Imran Anwar

The media, and consumers, are excited beyond belief at the incredible performance of Apple Computer in the last few years. It's recent release of a Mac MINI and an iPod (mini) Shuffle has generated even more buzz. It sold close to 5 MILLION of the existing iPods in just the last quarter. Even previous naysayer journalists have begun to sing praises of the iPod and Apple.

Forbes generally has great analysis. Their Mr. Hesseldahl usually writes logically and sensibly on technology issues. His recent piece (When iPod Sales Run Out Of Steam - Forbes 1/14/05) on iPod sales sounds similarly logically written. But, unfortunately, the logic is so flawed I had to laugh. Except, I am a satisfied Apple iPod user, MacUser and currently also hold a few hundred shares in Apple - so I had to respond to it.

Using the logic of his article, Microsoft should have gone out of business a few years ago, as well as IBM. After all, PCs and clones reached a much higher penetration of the market than iPod enjoys at present. Yet, more personal computers are sold today than ever before. People's needs increase. They upgrade. CPUs become more powerful. Applications require more resources and new hardware is needed.

Eventually, as machines become more affordable, people buy more PCs.

Similarly, with Apple's new $499 Mac Minis I can bet millions more of these and Windows PCs will sell even where people already have PCs

In My Humble Opinion, Apple iPods can conceivably sell in much higher numbers than personal computers, for various reasons.

A personal computer has the word "personal" in its name but often a whole family can share a SINGLE personal computer, especially because MacOS, Windows, etc. also allow separate user accounts to run on the same machine.

The iPod on the other hand is a TRULY Personal device. You take it with you. You keep your music on it. Your spouse or brother has their own iPod even if you both share the same computer. So, conceivably, a family with 2 parents and four kids that shares one PC (which could be in the range of $500-$3000) can easily also own six iPods.

If this family has a Mercedes or BMW or one of the newer models coming out with iPod support built-in, I could also imagine there being an iPod just for the car.

Sounds far-fetched? Think about it. We have cassette and CD players at home and in the car. For more than 5 years I have had a car with an integrated Motorola cell phone.

Now I have more than one cell phone. And, I am not even including the cellular numberless cell phone that is built into the car for the security and tele-aid system.

Over time, I just got used to leaving the Motorola cell phone in the car. Calls to it are automatically forwarded to my "handheld" cell phone when I am not driving. So, having a "car-iPod" in addition to the family's various iPods is not unthinkable.

This past Christmas, I bought a 40GB iPod for a friend who had done me a favor. I had considered taking his wife and him to dinner and a Broadway show. Instead, I spent approximately the same money on getting him the iPod. Whether he uses it (on his boat, car, motorcycle, hotrod, or just tooling around his family business where he is first to arrive and last to leave) or gives it to his wife or son or grandchildren, the iPod was the perfect gift. And, it will last a lot longer than that dinner I would have taken him to.

In the meantime, we got two more iPods, for my siblings, and I am now in the market for a replacement. My 30GB iPod is close to full and I also want the iPod Photo version. The 80GB version of that should be here soon, and as soon as it does, I hope to get one.

With the launch of the $99 iPod Shuffle, I can actually get these for my sister and her husband, who both like music but are not listening to it all the time to justify getting them the high-end units. At $99, at their birthdays, I would have no problems getting one each for the kids in the family.

So, as far as I am concerned, even if Apple does not add video to iPod (I have no interest in that at present), I can see MUSIC-ONLY driven sales continuing to rise. Add the explosion of podcasting, and more audio-books, and one can see how even "serious" people can happily tote iPods on the subway or on the plane, on their walk to the beach or walking in the mall.

If, as I have been begging for years, Apple re-releases a PIM (personal information maanger) or PDA, built either into the cell phone they are launching with Motorola or into the iPod (I already carry my contacts, calendars, and some documents on the iPod) with or without Bluetooth - you can see the implications of the iPod becoming even more a MyPod.

What do YOU think?