Hoping For Good Luck, On Friday The 13th

This has been quite an eventful week in New York. The previous few weeks of economic decline, bad financial news, increasing unemployment numbers and other news of global distress had been pushing the New York Stock Exchange consistently and constantly lower and lower.

Things were so bad that people would have preferred a return of the stress-filled yo-yo stock market days, where one at least had a 50-50 chance of making or losing money!

From a high of almost 13,000 the NYSE reached 6500 and there was talk of it even heading lower. There were fears that it might even fall below 6000 before all is said and done.

This decline continued while the flood of bad news also continued unabated. The only silver lining one could see around these ominous dark clouds was that most companies were choosing to do greater layoffs than they need and reducing costs as much as they can.

Even though each job lost is something that can mean the destruction of dreams of a family, sadly, for big businesses it is all a numbers game. Companies generally prefer to dish out all their bad news in one lump rather than dish it out piecemeal. It is generally easier to recover from a massive jolt and negative dip in stock prices over a few weeks or months. It is harder to get over the malaise that can cripple a company's stock price if the bad news, no matter how small, just keeps coming every few weeks.

What's that suggests to me, and keep in mind that I'm no financial adviser, is that most companies may be gearing up to have better than expected results at the end of the March quarter. Or, at least results that are less terrible than the market anticipates. Either one of these could potentially mean a rise in stock prices in April.

Even before the end of the quarter, a few pieces of good news have come out. One of them was that Citibank has been profitable for the last two months. This is the giant global behemoth that is one of those banks considered too large to be allowed to fail. This news came shortly after the bank's stock was trading at as low as one Dollar per share, a far cry from nearly $60 per share it used to be.

Anybody who bought those shares at the ridiculously low price of one Dollar literally made a profit of 35% in one day, as investors suddenly found their greed outweighing their fear.

Financial company stocks in general benefited from this uptick in the stock market. Most major stocks have been rising consistently for the last few days, though I expect some drops as profit-taking starts again.

Even though it is far too early to claim that the market will not plumb new lows, but more than likely, one year from now economists and other so-called experts will analyse and say that the recovery had begun at an anaemic but measurable rate in these weeks.

President Barack Obama and his team have had most of their focus on the American economy - as well as the global recession that still imperils the world. But in the meantime other serious matters of the world continue to demand attention.

As is consistent with Pakistan and its self-destructive ways, once again American media and Pakistan bashers have gotten ample opportunity to raise the specter of Pakistani nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorists - should the country spill further into anarchy.

The recent blatant and brazen terrorist attacks in the metropolitan city of Lahore, the despicable attempts to kill the Sri Lankan Cricket team and the evil murder of police officers and innocent bystanders there showed how almost no part of Pakistan is safe. This was an attack obviously not carried out by Taleban type thugs but by some well-organised but equally evil professionally trained gang of killers.

The Taleban continue to remain in the news, especially Pakistan ceding control of Swat and other regions to what are perceived as extremist groups. American drone and missile strikes continue to kill Pakistanis, innocent or otherwise, with disturbing regularity. India continues to rattle its sabers in the guise of demanding justice for the Mumbai attacks. In other words, there is no possible threat, internal or external, military, economic, political or social that Pakistan does not face.

Yet our shameless, spineless, gutless, clueless and witless politicians continue to fight over who sits at the head of the table - while this ship of state is rapidly sinking. Unlike even the Titanic, Pakistan is like a ship whose captain has been aiming it at every single iceberg he can see. On top of that, the ship has been torpedoed from behind. Its own crew is setting fire to cabins and furniture while others are busy looting what they can.

It is no wonder therefore that foreign powers, including America, find that the only way to control Pakistan, even to keep it from self-destructing, is to manage it not as friends but as masters. And, Pakistani politicians are quite OK with that.

From politicians, I want to shift to lawyers. Every country in the world has its share of lawyer jokes. For the last one year, and once again this month, it happens to be Pakistan's lawyers and barristers, who have taken up the challenge to restore democracy and justice.

A profession that relies not on regular salaries but on almost daily work in the courthouse has once again stepped up, at great cost to its self, economically, professionally, personally. Today I must salute the lawyers and other professionals of Pakistan, not just for bringing down one dictator, but for ensuring that Pakistanis as a nation see that they can choose and control what the government can or cannot do when an elected person tries to act as a dictator.

Will democracy rule or will Pakistan sink into the abyss of chaos and anarchy?

The fact that things have come to this stage in itself is a tragedy. For the first time in more than 60 years we had an opportunity to establish state institutions. This was a historic opportunity because so many forces lined up in a once in a century series of events. The sacrifice of Benazir Bhutto, the professionalism of General Kayani, the sensibility of some political leaders and the great courage of Chief Justice Iftikhar Choudhry and fellow judges. Rarely had so many forces lined up to restore true democracy to Pakistan. And, sadly, rarely have historic opportunities of such greatness been grasped in Pakistan.

As I am writing these lines in New York - on this 13th of March - I am hoping for some good luck for Pakistan. The only positive news is that some sort of compromise may be in the works in Islamabad. I, like millions of Pakistanis, can only hope and pray for that miracle and some Good Luck, today, on Friday The 13th.

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This article was in client publications on Friday the 13th, 2009.

Imran Anwar is a New York based Pakistani-American entrepreneur, Internet pioneer, inventor, writer and TV personality. He can be reached through his web site http://imran.com and imran@imran.com . You can follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/imrananwar

Pakistani Elections: Open Letters To Presidents Ex, Why & Z

OPEN LETTERS TO PRESIDENTS EX, WHY AND Z

By Imran Anwar

We all have dreams. In my dreams I am intelligent, dashing, handsome, filthy rich and powerful. I am also wise and highly intellectual, with such great opinions that heads of state call me - or at least listen to what I have to say on matters of great importance. Then, usually, I wake up to reality.

Obviously I am not the only one who has wild dreams. After all, if it were not for dreams, why would people try to run for the office of president of our nation? In many cases they even do this with scant regard for reality. It is also always important to remember the difference between dreams, big dreams and delusions.

I am writing these lines in Karachi. I am here to be a guest on several GEO TV shows discussing the election for President of Pakistan. When I look at the candidates for president, I see a curious mixture of dreams, big dreams and delusions.

The readers of my articles, from back in the 1980s in MAG Weekly and News International, to my current topical blog postings at IMRAN.COM, know very well that I do my best to be fair and balanced, as well as an “Equal Opportunity Offender”.

I say it as I see it, without regard for racial, ethnic, national, political or religious affiliation. That is also why I probably never will be offered a cabinet post by any head of state in Pakistan, elected or otherwise, or any other country.

Since none of the three Presidential candidates in Pakistan has contacted me for my advice, I have to assume it is because they believe I must be very busy. So, to be totally fair, I decided to write to each of them through an open letter in this publication. Like variables in an engineering or Math problem, let’s call them candidates Ex, Why, and z.

To President Ex – Justice (retired) Saeed-uz-Zaman Siddiqui

Sir, I have to give you credit for having a dream. Do I do not know you personally I salute you for being one of the few people in Pakistani elections that I have not heard anyone say totally negative things about. Sure, some may question your affiliation with the Nawaz Sharif party based on past events, but even your critics and non-supporters do not try to rip you to shreds. That, itself, is a major achievement.

You are a man of principle, said to have high integrity and the honor to stand up to a dictator. These are qualities that would get you elected and appointed in any other country.

Unfortunately, in Pakistan, these are the very qualities that would likely ensure you can not be elected president of our great nation. Sure, stranger things have happened. But, I thank you for dreaming and making a run for the presidency.

To President Why – Mr. Mushahid Hussain Syed

You, Sir, are obviously a man who has big dreams. I came to know off and respect you when I was a student political leader at the engineering University in Lahore. This was in the 1980s, when you were making a name for yourself as a journalist standing up to a dictator.

When I joined the ranks of the media industry, as business manager of Jang, and a writer in MAG Weekly, etc. I continued to respect you even though you were at a competing newspaper.

It is, therefore, a huge shock for me to learn that during the last 20 years you went from being an independent minded, outspoken, bold, Muslim media professional and a prisoner of conscience to someone who not only supported but became part of a dictator’s team.

It is easy for me to comment on your decisions to change sides in a political fray, but for you to change completely into the opposite of what you stood for is something I will never understand. In any case, I thank you for dreaming big, and making a run for the presidency. It will hopefully enable educated media professionals to be considered candidates for president in the future.

To President Z – Mr. Asif Ali Zardari

Sir, even though I have never personally met you, it has been my observation that it is nothing that you are understated about. We know that the other candidates have dreams and big dreams, possibly with some delusion thrown in for good measure.

In your case it is obvious that you had a dream, you have big dreams and, you may be suffering from a potent mixture of ambition, hubris and delusions of grandeur.

Apply that on top of a foundation built on a pliant political party machine devoted and dedicated more to a particular individual or a family than to their own roll in national politics, democracy or, heaven forbid, history. Result? You can almost be assured of the presidency. Congratulations.

The way I see it, only a miracle can prevent that.

Now, before you think I must be some anti-PPP, anti-Bhutto, anti-Zardari activist, let me assure you that is not the case. I have had the pleasure of meeting the late great Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in Karachi as a young teen, the late Benazir Bhutto, as a young media professional, and always been supportive of their role, as individuals, and as a family, in Pakistan’s democracy.

But, I am not a blind worshipper of the Bhutto name. Both those great individuals also failed to live up to the incredible potential, and historic opportunities, God gave them. They paid, in both cases, with their lives and the country paid either with failed experiments in democracy, martial laws or instability.

When I say that only a miracle can keep you from being President, I say that as a will-wisher of Pakistan and the Bhutto legacy – which I suppose is now more of a Zardari family name legacy. And, herein lies the problem.

Ego, ambition, hubris, cunning, ruthlessness, dreams, visions, delusions of grandeur, and perhaps even a dash of madness are not necessarily bad things – especially if they are attached to a person who dreams to change the world, to build empires for his nation, build historic monuments to man’s dreams and ability, to leave a legacy bigger than he himself ever was. Alexander the Great, even Napoleon, and many other “madmen” come to mind.

These same personality traits in more ordinary people, driven merely by desires to conquer real estate markets and build Swiss bank accounts, and to exploit opportunities for short-term gain, can only ensure disasters of history, and historic disasters.

My fear is that you have all the traits we talk about above but lack the vision to see this is a historic opportunity, not just another personal opportunity to “get more rich” and “take care of your friends”.

The sad thing is that even the staunchest Bhutto supporters, from politically connected families, to their servants and man-on-the-street type voters are all but certain that nothing good will come out of your becoming President, regardless of your beautifully worded article in the Washington Post.

You make a compelling argument for why your Presidency is essential. But, I wonder how you expect anyone, much less a jaded nation of 160 million people to believe a word you say, after your reneging even on your own signed agreements with Nawaz Sharif, and your obvious play at controlling the judiciary.

Almost to a man, the impression in every city I have asked people about you is that you are only doing this for personal financial gain at the expense of the country. They feel what may have been true or false impressions of large commissions associated with you as a nickname, will become even larger grabs of power and wealth.

As a result, the false blessing of your becoming President with a weak hand-picked judiciary, ugly constitutional amendments a gift from former dictators, lapdog lawmakers and apathetic public could become a true-curse.

The actions everyone predicts for you may ensure the total erasure of the Bhutto name and goodwill, and any chance for your son and coming Zardari generations from playing a positive, or any role, in the unwritten future history of Pakistan. The even bigger risk for your family and you would be to become “marked men” instead of leaving a great mark on history.

Therein, Zardari sahib, lies your opportunity. No. I do not refer to your opportunity to acquire larger Swiss bank accounts or longer lists of properties abroad.

You are actually blessed with truly low expectations from everyone.
From judges to generals, from journalists to generalists, from even your own voters, no one expects anything good for Pakistan under your rule.

That actually is a great chance for you personally. You, and only you, can easily, but with some soul-searching, some introspection, some staring at the mirror, some appreciation of where you stand on the crossroads of history, decide to become a truly historic figure - in a nation starved for historic leadership.

Will you, Sir, have the wisdom, decency, moral and political courage and a vision of making a real name for yourself, and your coming generations in history books.?

For your, your children’s and Pakistan’s sake, I hope so.

The nation is standing by to see what path you take. Good luck, President Zardari.

Imran Anwar

Transitioning From Guesswork To Analysis In Predicting Apple Product Transitions

There has been some discussion going on about the direction of Apple next new models. Speculation became rampant when the Apple CFO referred to some product transition coming up, which may squeeze profit margins.

People are trying to guess if it means a switch from Intel to AMD, some new chipset from Semi, the company that Apple acquired, some new video chipset, etc. I can see that they can be called 'trasitions' - but then, so is changing the way a power adaptor connects to the laptop. I do not see any of these as having significant enough impact to warrant the CFO warning of some lower profit margins.

My prediction is that Apple may decide to let Mac OS X run on non-Apple 'Windows/Wintel' machines (which would lower margins and be a product 'transition' at the same time).

To keep pace with, while not really price-matching the low quality fares of HP and Dell, they would also reduce their own hardware prices somewhat, but still command a premium for additional things like Semi related chips, perhaps GPS and a WWAN capability built in.

And, finally, perhaps it is time for the granddaddy of the old and defunct Apple Newton, bring in a TouchMac. A tablet style MacBook Pro with touchscreen, iPhone like functionality, and 3D display capability.

It would be cute to call them TouchBooks, but Panasonic may object based on their Toughbook trademarks. That would be tough to book as a trademark!

What do you think?

The Misnamed Apple iPhone Is My MyPod!

It has been several weeks since I had a time to write a blog entry, and I appreciate the emails I got from readers asking where I had disappeared. Actually, except for a truly wonderful European trip (will write on that another time), I have been busy commuting between my NY and FL offices and literally pulling all-nighters every few nights.

So much so that when Apple and Steve Jobs announced the truly spectacular Apple iPhone, I did not get a chance to praise Apple or to disagree with calling it an iPhone (regardless of whether Cisco has any claim to the name). My happiness was that something I had written literally TWO YEARS AGO, an entry in this blog on January 18, 2005, had come true. I had predicted that the iPod should be repackaged and redesigned to become a MyPod, a device with music and PDA functionality, but also running Mac OS X.

The phone talk had been going on even at that time, but to me the biggest strategic aspect of the iPhone (which I still think should be renamed to MyPod or something non-limiting like iPhone) is its using Mac OS X. I can hardly wait to get the machine.

Here is what I wrote on the topic and based on questions people raised, I gave more details of how the new iPod would become a computing platform. Your comments are welcome. Keep those emails coming, and hope to hear from you on my iPhone (when it ships, and hopefully unlocked so I do not have to be stuck with Cingular).